In the last FOMC conference meeting and economic projections, the Feds stated that interest rate hike would be data dependent. The major data’s they intend to focus on is the Labor sector, inflation reports and wage growth. Last week, data from unemployment claims and inflation showed improvement in the economy as investors are still holding grounds rate hike is expected by June or at worst September this year.
The pair stayed in consolidation in between 1.4634 supports and 1. 5167 resistance during last week’s trading session, outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Stronger recovery could be seen. But upside should be limited by 1.5551, 38.2% retracement of 1.7190 to 1.4634 at 1.5610 in the medium term picture, and bring down trend resumption. Below 1.4634 will extend the fall from 1.7190 towards 1.4229 support next. However a decisive break of 1.5167 resistance could bring further rise to 1.5551 resistance.
Later in the week, investors will be focusing on the U.S. employment report for February, due out on Friday for further indications on the path of monetary policy.